OpenAI's run-rate topped $40B by August 13, up from a five-month plateau near $25B — clearing the thesis's own $35B Q3 bar. But Anthropic's run-rate rose from $47B in May to $65B by end of July. The gap is now $25B — the standing thesis's downgrade line itself, not yet past it — so the trigger is reached, not crossed.

A June 25 report said OpenAI was leaning toward delaying its IPO to 2027 to hold the $1T bar; Altman confirmed September 14 that OpenAI will not IPO this year, citing safety concerns as premature. The August 10 tender priced OpenAI at $852B. Anthropic's own IPO target, per the same September 14 reporting, rose to roughly $2T, up from $977B.

Anthropic's July 24 system card showed Opus 5 leading GPT-5.6 Sol on SWE-bench Pro 79.2% to 64.6%. The same round, GPT-5.6 Terra led Claude Sonnet 5 on Terminal-Bench 2.1, 87.4% to 80.4%. OpenAI passed 1 billion active users July 31; IBM signed to certify consultants on GPT-5.6 August 13.

A California jury dismissed Musk's personal $150B disgorgement claim as time-barred. xAI's separate corporate trade-secrets suit against OpenAI is on appeal to the Ninth Circuit as of July 15, 2026, after the amended complaint was dismissed without leave to amend. Litigation risk narrowed; it did not close.